Health Lottery Sales
What can we glean about Health Lottery sales and prizes from the first week's Health Lottery results?
Well, if we left it to the Health Lottery, very little. All they’ve officially said is that there were two jackpot winners and that they paid out “over 12,000” winners. When Lottery.co.uk called the helpline we were told there were more than 500 winners of £500 and that they would put the numbers of winners on their website “in the near future”, we are still waiting. We are also still waiting on a response to our query about independent auditing of the draw itself and the number of winners. No information on Health Lottery sales are offered anywhere, though some retailers are reporting disappointing sales.
So in the absence of dialogue from the Health Lottery, let’s try and work out some statistics.
The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 2,118,760. So if there were two winners, on average, we’d expect there to have been 2 x 2,118,760 = 4,237,520 tickets sold. For there to be 500 winners of £500 at odds of 1 in 9,417, there would, on average, have to be 4,708,500 - which is in the same ball park.
Friday 14th October 2011
So we can pretty much assume that there were around 4 ½ million tickets sold. This compares poorly against National Lottery Lotto ticket sales of around £21 million for the same weekend (incidentally also back calculated since the National Lottery operator have also stopped reporting ticket sales).
You can use a probability method to work out how much cash is returned to players by the Health Lottery. For sales of 2,118,760 tickets, there will, on average be 1 jackpot winner at £100,000, then 225 winners of £500 which is another £112,500, and 9,901 winners of £50 coming to £495,050. So the total prize money given out would be £707,550 on health lottery sales of £2,118,760. That means just 33.4% of ticket sales is being returned to players, compared to 50% from the National lottery.
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