The odds of any given set of numbers being drawn in a fair and legal lottery game (such as Lotto or EuroMillions) are identical, but there are millions of players who base their entries on pseudo-mathematical ideas. None of the ideas that follow hold any water when examined from a purely scientific or statistical point of view, but knowing about them will certainly enable you to hold your own if they ever crop up in conversation over dinner…
Consecutive Appearances
The basic theory behind this approach is that one or more lottery numbers that appeared in the most recent draw are “likely” to appear in the next draw. We put the word “likely” in quotes because there is no rational reason for anyone to think that this is the case. Whilst it is true that some numbers will occasionally appear in two or more consecutive draws, this is only because of the random nature of the game, and not because there is any non-coincidental connection between the draws. Despite this fact, lots of people base their entries on the numbers selected in the previous draw.
Number Temperatures
Many players like to keep track of how many times certain numbers have appeared, categorising the ones that have appeared the most as “hot” and the ones that have appeared the least as “cold”. Some players think that “cold” numbers are “due to be drawn” and include these on their lottery tickets. Others think that “hot” numbers are “on a roll” and are therefore more likely to appear again. Both beliefs are false from a statistical point of view, as no number ever has a better chance than any other.
Colour Trends
This approach is similar to the previous one, but in this case ball colours are tracked so that the player can decide whether pink, green, yellow or any other colour of ball is more likely to appear. As you will appreciate by now, no colour of ball is any more likely to be drawn than any other, but this doesn’t stop thousands of people from believing such an idea.
Previous Draws
The final idea we will identify here is to enter any set of numbers that the player wishes, but to first check that this particular combination has never won a lottery jackpot since the game in question began. The theory behind this approach is that it is less likely for the same set of numbers to win a jackpot twice than it is for a “virgin” set of numbers to be drawn. Of course, this is nonsense, as the odds for both sets of numbers are exactly the same, but many players find this idea appealing regardless.
We don’t mind people using any of the above approaches to pick their lottery numbers, because no number selection method can affect the odds of winning in any way. What we do mind is people pretending that such methods are at all scientific, because they aren’t (see Are Lottery Balls Intelligent?). They are simply weird and only wonderful if you just happen to be the person who is lucky enough to win.
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